An analysis of how YouGov's vote and seat projections fared in showing the reality of the 2025 Australian federal election

YouGov stands alone in predicting a historic win for Labor and disaster for Dutton’s Coalition

Labor leads 52.2% to 47.8% in the two-party preferred vote

Central projection: Labor 84 seats; Coalition 47 seats; Independent 14; Greens 3; KAP 1; Centre Alliance 1

• Labor leads 53.5% to 46.5% over Coalition in the two-party preferred vote, up 0.5% • Labor’s primary vote is up 0.5% at 33.5%, Coalition is 31%, (down 2). • Peter Dutton has recorded a record negative satisfaction rating of -18% • Anthony Albanese has extended his lead as preferred Prime Minister at 50% over Peter Dutton’s 35%

• Labor leads 53% to 47% over Coalition in the two-party preferred vote, up 0.5% • Labor’s primary is 33% (up 1%), Coalition is 33%, (down 0.5%). • Anthony Albanese leads as preferred Prime Minister by 48% over Peter Dutton’s 38%

Albanese increases lead as preferred PM to 48%-37%

Anthony Albanese has increased his lead as preferred Prime Minister over Dutton, now at 45%-38%

Central projection: Labor 75 seats; Coalition 60 seats; Independent 11; Greens 2; KAP 1; Centre Alliance 1

Albanese leads Dutton as preferred Prime Minister (45%-40%)

An emerging trend shows improving satisfaction with Anthony Albanese and declining satisfaction for Peter Dutton

Albanese expands lead as preferred Prime Minister to 45%, ahead of Dutton at 39%

• 62% Australians support a government takeover of the Whyalla Steelworks • 60% back the idea of the steelworks being run by a publicly owned company

The first YouGov MRP model of the 2025 election shows Australia is on course for a hung parliament.

A guide to the methodology behind YouGov's use of multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to project how Australians will vote in the 2025 election.

87% support stronger penalties for social media companies who do not comply with Australian laws

Most Australians not very interested in the Royal visit but prefer Royals over local politicians

Labor primary vote down to 30%, Coalition up to 39%, Greens up to 14%

Two Party remains tied 50% Labor – 50% Coalition

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