- Labor leads with 34%, ahead of Liberals on 31% and Greens at 13%
- Hung Parliament, with Labor likely to be largest party
- 52% of voters prioritise health, 45% want more public housing
- 47% oppose privatisation of state assets, only 36% in support
- Rockliff preferred Premier at 43%, Winter trails on 36%
Labor has taken a narrow lead in the Tasmanian state election race, according to a new YouGov poll. The party now holds 34 percent of the primary vote, up five points since the 2024 election. The Liberal Party follows closely at 31 percent, while support for Independents has risen sharply to 18 percent. The Greens are polling at 13 percent.
The poll indicates a likely hung parliament, with Labor emerging as the largest party.
The poll provides a detailed view of first-preference support across Tasmania’s five electorates, revealing varying dynamics between urban and regional seats.
Rockliff leads as Preferred Premier
Premier Jeremy Rockliff remains the preferred leader, with 43 percent of respondents supporting him for the role of Premier, compared to 36 percent for Labor Opposition Leader Dean Winter. A further 21 percent of voters remain undecided on who should lead the state.
Health and housing emerge as defining election issues
The poll reveals strong and consistent support across Tasmania for greater investment in health and public housing. 52% of voters cited healthcare investment as one of their top priorities in deciding how to vote, followed by 45%who ranked building more public housing as a key concern.
Other highly ranked issues included reducing state debt by taxing higher-income earners (41%), opposing the privatisation of state assets (34%), and opposition to the Macquarie Point AFL stadium project (33%). In contrast, only 22% supported the stadium proposal, while less than one in five voters prioritised policies supporting privatisation or cutting public services.
These priorities were consistent across all five electorates, with health topping the list in every region. In Lyons, 63% of voters identified health investment as a key concern- the highest figure recorded for any issue in any electorate.
Opposition to privatisation grows
Privatisation of state assets has emerged as one of the most divisive issues of the campaign. The poll found that 47% of voters oppose asset sales by the Tasmanian State Government, while only 36% are in support. 17% said they were unsure. The issue has gained prominence following a recent no-confidence motion in Parliament that highlighted community opposition to further privatisation.
Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov, said the poll reflects a Tasmanian electorate focused squarely on essential services and fairness in state management.
“Labor is on course to become the largest party in what will still be a hung parliament,” Smith said. “With strong opposition to privatisation and clear support for health and public housing investment, this election is being shaped by fundamental public concerns. The final outcome will depend on how effectively each party connects with voters on the issues that matter most to them.”
For more information contact: paul.smith@yougov.com
Methodology: This survey was conducted between June 12th - 24th June 2025 with a sample of 1287 with a seat sample breakdown of Bass 253, Braddon 250, Clark 251, Franklin 266, Lyons 267.
Results are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, region, education, income and 2025 federal election vote), with an effective margin of error of 3.4%. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.
We are the only polling company to have polled our entire panel of survey participants after the recent 2025 Federal election to ensure our polls are representative of how Australians voted.
