- Liberals lead with 31%, Labor close at 30%, Greens at 16%
- Record 39% vote for minor parties and Independents
- A hung parliament with both major parties short of a majority certain
- 55% prefer Dean Winter as Premier if no clear winner
- State-owned insurance company favored by 41%
YouGov’s final public opinion poll ahead of the Tasmanian state election shows that a hung parliament is certain, with voters clearly favouring Labor Leader Dean Winter as their preferred Premier if no party secures a majority.
When comparing current vote shares to the 2024 election, the poll finds that Labor’s support has increased by 1 percentage point to 30%, while the Liberal Party has seen a decline of nearly 5 points, falling to 31%. The Greens have gained 3 points, now sitting at 16%. Independent candidates are projected to receive 20% of the vote, while the Nationals sit at 2% and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party at 1%.
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads with 55%, while the Liberal Party trails at 45%.
In the event of a hung parliament, 55% of respondents say they would prefer Dean Winter to be selected as Premier. This includes 23% respondents who initially expressed no preference but chose Winter when asked to make a decision between him and current Premier Jeremy Rockliff, who received 45% in the forced-choice scenario.
YouGov’s Director of Public Data, Paul Smith, said, “In the event of a hung parliament, 55% of Tasmanians would prefer parliament choose Dean Winter as Premier. This includes the 23% of voters who initially said ‘neither’ but made a choice when prompted.”
Despite the preference for Winter, both major party leaders face high dissatisfaction ratings. Jeremy Rockliff’s net satisfaction rating sits at -19, with 34% of respondents satisfied and 53% dissatisfied with his performance. Dean Winter’s net satisfaction rating is -13, with 27% satisfied and 40% dissatisfied. A significant 33% of voters remain undecided about Winter’s performance, likely reflecting lower name recognition.
The poll also reveals that Tasmanians are broadly supportive of the establishment of a state-owned insurance company to address rising insurance premiums. 41% of voters support the proposal, compared to 29% who oppose it, while 30% remain undecided.
For more information contact: paul.smith@yougov.com
Methodology: This survey was conducted between July 7 and 18, 2025 with a sample of 931.
Results are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, region, education, income and 2025 federal election vote), with an effective margin of error of 3.2%. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.
We are the only polling company to have polled our entire panel of survey participants after the recent 2025 Federal election to ensure our polls are representative of how Australians voted.
