YouGov's final MRP model of the 2025 federal election shows that Australia will re-elect a Labor majority government, with the most likely result being Labor taking 84 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives. The most likely outcome for the Coalition sees it reduced to 47 seats – its lowest percentage of seats in the federal parliament since 1946.
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov: “Labor is poised to win an increased majority. This is a dramatic campaign turnaround considering our data in February pointed to a likely Coalition government. YouGov’s MRP shows Labor will now win decisively in the outer suburban and regional marginal seats that tend to decide Australian elections. It was in these types of electorates where the Coalition was leading just a couple of months ago.”
About the MRP
The team at YouGov behind the Australian MRP model is the same one that accurately projected both the 2023 Spanish election, the 2024 UK general election and 2025 German federal election.
MRPs (multi-level modelling and post-stratification) are constituency projection models that first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. It then uses data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’).
MRP projections
The model projects a range of results, with Labor currently on course to secure between 76 and 85 seats, the Coalition taking 45-53, the Greens 2-5, Independents 13-16 and others between 2-4.
YouGov’s central projection – the most likely result – shows Labor on 84 seats, the Coalition on 47, Independents on 14, Greens on 3, KAP on 1 and the Centre Alliance 1. This would see Coalition experiencing a net loss of 11 seats from its 2022 result.
The reversal of fortunes for both Labor and the Coalition is shown in the projected seat most likely seat outcomes for the major parties in YouGov’s MRP models since February.
YouGov’s MRP projected the likelihood of a Labor government at just 1% in February, but today the model predicts that the likelihood of a Labor majority government at over 97%.
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
Notable seats
All sitting Independent are projected to win their seats, with independent candidates also poised to take the seats of Bradfield, Calare, Cowper, Monash and Wannon that elected Coalition MPs in 2022.
Cowper, currently held by Nationals MP Pat Conaghan, is projected to be won by independent challenger Caz Heise, and Calare MP Andrew Gee, who was elected as National MP, will retain his seat as an Independent.
YouGov’s model suggest that three prominent members of the Coalition are set to lose their seats:
- Liberal MP Dan Tehan, Shadow Cabinet Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, is set to lose Wannon to Independent challenger Alex Dyson
- Liberal MP David Coleman, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, is on course to be defeated in Banks by Labor candidate Zhi Soon
- Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, Shadow Cabinet Minister for Housing and Social Services, is set to lose in Deakin by Labor’s Matt Gregg
However, the Coalition is projected to regain seat from Labor the seat of Aston won in a mid-term by-election in 2023.
While Labor is favoured to win Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens, the results will be determined by the preferences of voters of the third-placed party in what are three-way contests between Labor, Greens and the Coalition.
The seats projected to change hands since the last Federal election are:
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
Vote shares
Both the Labor Party (31.4%) and the Coalition (31.1%) are projected to get lower primary votes than at the last election. The decline in the largest party’s vote shares have come as the number of voters supporting minor parties and independents has increased compared to 2022.
At a national two-party-preferred level, the Labor Party is expected to win 52.9% to 47.1% for the Coalition, a swing of 0.7% from 2022 to the Labor Party.
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
