- Labor’s lead with a massive 12.4% swing could leave liberals with just two seats in state Parliament
- Peter Malinauskas leads Vincent Tarzia as preferred Premier by 58-Point Margin, 72% -14%
- Malinauskas enjoys 70% net satisfaction rating
A new YouGov public data poll shows the South Australian Labor Party on track to deliver the most decisive electoral victory in the state’s history, securing 67% of the two-party preferred vote—a staggering 12.4% swing since the 2022 state election. If replicated at the ballot box, the result would reduce the Liberals to just two seats in Parliament, the worst performance by the conservative side of politics since 1857.
Collapse in liberal support, especially among young voters
First preference primary vote intentions further underscore the Liberals’ declining fortunes. Labor has surged to a commanding 48% in the primary vote, an 8-point increase since the 2022 state election. In stark contrast, the Liberal Party has plummeted to just 21%, marking a dramatic 15-point drop. The Greens have also gained momentum, rising to 14% (+5), while support for Independents sits at 8% (+1). One Nation has climbed to 7%, up four points, and support for other parties is at 2% (-3).
The Liberals are struggling particularly with younger voters, trailing both Labor and the Greens.
Former liberal voters abandon party
Alarmingly for the Liberals, only 66% of their May 2025 federal election voters intend to back them at the state level. In comparison, 90% of federal Labor voters remain loyal to Labor in state polling. Among past federal Liberal voters at a state level:
- 20% now back Labor
- 9% back One Nation
- 3% support Independents
According to Paul Smith, YouGov’s Director of Public Data, “An election held today would be the biggest win for the Labor Party in South Australian electoral history. A uniform swing of 12.4% would see 11 of the 13 Liberal MPs lose their seats, including Vincent Tarzia, leaving the Liberals with only two MPs in Parliament.”
He added, “This would be the worst result for the conservative side of politics in South Australia in 168 years. The Liberal vote collapse, especially among younger voters, highlights how dire the party’s situation has become.”
Malinauskas dominates preferred Premier poll
Peter Malinauskas holds a commanding lead as preferred Premier, with 72% of South Australians backing him compared to just 14% for Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia. The 58-point margin is the largest ever recorded in South Australian political polling. Malinauskas also enjoys a net satisfaction rating of +52%, with 70% of voters satisfied with his leadership and only 18% dissatisfied.
By contrast, Tarzia faces a significant uphill battle, with just 22% of voters expressing satisfaction in his performance and a net satisfaction rating of -9%. Nearly half of respondents (47%) were replied “don’t know” about his leadership.
About the Poll
The survey was conducted by YouGov between 15–28 May 2025, with a representative sample of 903 South Australian voters. YouGov accurately predicted the outcome of the 2025 Federal Election, including Labor’s increased majority and the Coalition’s worst result since the Liberal Party’s founding in 1944.
Methodology: This survey was conducted between May 15th - 28th May 2025 with a sample of 903. Results are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, region, education, income and 2025 federal election vote), with an effective margin of error of 3.4%. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.
We are the only polling company to have polled our entire panel of survey participants after the recent 2025 Federal election to ensure our polls are representative of how Australians voted.
