YouGov stands alone in predicting a historic win for Labor and disaster for Dutton’s Coalition
YouGov was the only pollster to measure the scale of the Labor win and the Coalition defeat in the 2025 Australian Federal election.
Its MRP model was by far the most accurate seat projection of the election, correctly anticipating significant gains for Labor right across the board and pointing to a comfortable double-digit majority. The result was not expected by any other models, continuing the YouGov’s enviable track record of projecting elections both in Australia and aboard.
In its final MRP released the Thursday before the election, YouGov projected that:
- Labor would win the election in a landslide with a comfortable double-digit majority, notably increasing its seats, marking the first time in 125 years that a first-term Labor majority government increased its majority at the second election
- The Coalition would suffer double-digit losses with the party suffering its worst defeat since the Liberal Party first contested an election in 1946
Unlike competing models, projections, and expectations, the MRP anticipated the forthcoming historic Labor victory. Our two-party preferred projection of 53%-47% told the story of an increased Labor vote, which combined with the strong preference flows to Anthony Albanese's party picked up in the model, translated into a resounding Labor win. Overall, the MRP showed a 97% probability of a Labor majority victory and just a 3% chance of a hung parliament in which Labor would be the largest party.
Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov: “Our confidence in our data, our model and our experts led us to release a bold projection of a Labor landslide that we were alone in anticipating. Our data tracked the dramatic shift in public opinion in this highly dynamic election, from a likely Coalition minority government in February, to a Labor minority government in March, and finally to the reality of a Labor landslide in our final call. Our accuracy in this election further demonstrates that businesses wanting to make reality-based decisions know that YouGov will get it right.”
YouGov has a long history of providing the most reliable data – being the most accurate pollster in both the recent German, Spanish, and UK general elections. YouGov’s method of utilizing cutting-edge research methods – including Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) model – give accurate projections that organizations and governments trust worldwide.
Amir Daftari, Director of Political Polling at YouGov: “Our model was built on the foundation of our successful on-going national polling, combined with the breadth and depth of YouGov data. Our election model clearly demonstrated that when the data is robust and the modelling is rigorous, even a historic shift like this one can be accurately predicted in advance.”
