Coalition best-placed to form a government, but is currently falling two seats short of a majority
The first YouGov MRP model of the 2025 election shows Australia is on course for a hung parliament. The data’s central projection has the Coalition winning 73 seats in the 150 member House of Representatives, just two short of a majority and leaving the opposition Leader Peter Dutton in the strongest position to form an administration.
If Dutton were to become prime minister, it would mean Anthony Albanese's Labor Government would be the first one term Federal government in 94 years.
See the full seat-by-seat projection at here
YouGov’s central projection – the most likely result – shows the Coalition on 73 seats, Labor on 66, Independents on 8, Greens on 1. KAP on 1 and the Centre Alliance 1. This would see Labor experiencing a net loss of 12 seats, with several traditional Labor electorates in working class areas going to the Coalition.
But the model overall projects a range of results, with the Coalition currently on course to secure between 65 and 80 seats, meaning a majority is not impossible. The upper and lower ranges of the MRP have Labour taking 59-72 seats, the Greens 1-3, and Independents 7-10.
From seats to votes
The data finds the Coalition increasing its vote share by 1.7 points on the 2022 result with Independents rising by 3.6 points and the Greens 0.4 points. The biggest losers are Labor, which is on course to see its share decline by 3.5 points.
YouGov’s data finds Labor’s primary vote is down most in its once safe working class seats, but that minor parties and independents are set to be the benefit as much as the Coalition.
The two party preferred vote shows a 3.2% swing to the Coalition compared to 2022, with Labor on 48.9% and the Coalition 51.1%.
Notable results
Labor is projected to lose the coalmining seat of Hunter (that it has held since 1910) along with neighbouring constituencies of Shortland and Paterson.
Formerly safe Labor working class electorates in outer suburban Sydney and Melbourne are projected to see some of the largest swings against the party. The western Sydney seat of Werriwa – once held by former Labor Prime Minister Gough Whitlam – is set to be won by the Coalition on a swing of 5.9%.
Two government ministers are projected to lose their seats – Pat Conroy, MP for Shortland and current Cabinet Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery, and Kristy McBain, MP for Eden-Monaro and incumbent Local Government minister.
The Coalition is projected to win none of the seats taken by “Teal” independents in the last election. This suggests the Coalition is experiencing challenges in winning support from the higher income, highly educated voters that dominate its former heartland seats in Sydney and Melbourne.
Labor is slightly favoured to win Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith from the Greens and Fowler back from the Independent Dai Le. In these three ways, Labor success rests on its ability to finish ahead of the Coalition and then win on preferences.
See the full seat-by-seat projection at here
About the MRP
The team at YouGov behind the Australian MRP model is the same one that accurately projected both the 2023 Spanish election and the 2024 UK general election.
MRPs (multi-level modelling and post-stratification) are constituency projection models that first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. It then uses data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’).
