- Labor leads 52.2% to 47.8% in the two-party preferred vote
- Peter Dutton hits record low satisfaction rating at -24%
- Albanese leads as preferred PM, 51% to 34%—a record 17-point margin
The final public data poll from YouGov ahead of the 2025 Federal Election shows the Australian Labor Party on track to retain government, leading the Coalition 52.2% to 47.8% on a two-party preferred basis. The poll, conducted between April 24 and May 1, surveyed 3,003 Australians, and indicates a marginal national swing of +0.07% to Labor since the 2022 election.
Labor’s lead is underpinned by the unpopularity of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who has recorded a net satisfaction rating of -24%—the lowest for any major party leader this term, according to YouGov's public data polling series.
Since last week’s poll, Labor's primary vote has decreased slightly to 31.1% (down -2.4%), while the Coalition has seen a marginal gain of +0.4%, bringing their primary vote to 31.4%. Support for One Nation has dropped by -2%, now standing at 8.5%. In contrast, both the Greens and Independents have seen increases, rising to 14.6% (+0.6%) and 6.7% (+1.7%), respectively. Support for the Trumpets of Patriots has increased slightly, reaching 2.5%.
Preferred Prime Minister
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has extended his lead as preferred Prime Minister to 51%, compared to Dutton’s 34%—a record 17-point margin. Albanese leads across all demographics and geographies, including male and female voters, inner and outer metropolitan areas, as well as rural and regional Australia.
“YouGov’s final call for the election points to a Labor majority government win, driven by the unpopularity of Peter Dutton,” said Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov. “Albanese’s strong lead in the preferred Prime Minister metric, alongside stable two-party preferred figures, indicates that most Australians do not want Dutton as Prime Minister.”
Leader Satisfaction
While both party leaders maintain negative net satisfaction ratings, Dutton's rating stands out for its stark negativity at -24%, the lowest ever recorded for any major party leader in YouGov’s election polling series.
- Prime Minister Albanese has a net satisfaction rating of -6% (43% satisfied, 49% dissatisfied)
- Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton has a net satisfaction rating -24% (33% satisfied, 57% dissatisfied)
The survey was conducted between April 24th and May 1st, 2025, with a sample of 3000 Australians. Of those surveyed 38% had already voted. For insights on the Australian Federal election, please visit the YouGov website.
Note: YouGov has changed its methodology for this poll so that voters choose from the names and parties of the candidates who will appear on the House of Representatives Ballot for their electorate. As sixty-two seats do not have an independent candidate, in those seats, voters did not have the option to vote independent as in previous YouGov polls.
For further information or comment, contact Paul Smith, Director of Public Data, at paul.smith@yougov.com
Methodology: 'This survey was conducted between April 24th and May 1st, 2025, with a sample size of 3003. Results have been weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, education, AEC region, household income, and past vote (including the federal election and Voice referendum). The effective margin of error is ±2.3% See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings. YouGov allocated preferences using the respondent allocated methodology set out on MRP methodology page.
YouGov correctly predicted the result of the recent referendum at 40% Yes, 60% No, and is a founding member of the Australian Polling Council, as well as a global leader in polling research. We are the only polling company to have polled our entire panel of survey participants to ensure our polls are representative of how Australians voted in the Voice referendum.
