The latest YouGov Public Data poll reveals a significant shift in the political landscape, with the Labor Party surging to its highest two-party preferred (2PP) rating this term, now leading the Coalition 53.5% to 46.5% — a 0.5% increase since the April 18th poll.
Labor also leads on the primary vote for the first time this term, recording 33.5% (+0.5%) compared to the Coalition's 31%, which marks a 2% decline and positions them 4.7% below their 2022 Federal Election result. This would represent the lowest primary vote ever recorded by the Coalition since the Liberal Party’s founding in 1944 if replicated at the next Federal election.
One Nation has seen an increase of +3.5%, rising to 10.5%. The Greens increased to 14% (+1%), while Independents has fallen to 5% (-4%). Support for the Trumpets of Patriots has remained unchanged at 2%.
Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov, said, “In an election held today, the Coalition would receive the lowest vote since the Liberal Party was formed in 1944. Labor now holds a clear lead in all states except Queensland and is ahead in key outer metropolitan seats that will determine the next election.”
Preferred Prime Minister
Albanese has extended his lead as preferred Prime Minster recording 50% support to Peter Dutton’s 35%. Albanese leads in all states and across demographics: men, women, regional, rural, and capital city voters.
“Anthony Albanese is now the preferred Prime Minister in every demographic group and geographic region across the country. His 15-point lead over Peter Dutton (50% to 35%) reflects growing national support”, Smith added.
Leader Satisfaction
Net satisfaction for both party leaders remains negative, but voters rate Peter Dutton much more negatively at -18%, marking the lowest net satisfaction rating for any leader this term in YouGov’s public data poll series.
- Prime Minister Albanese has a net satisfaction rating of -7% (42% satisfied, 49% dissatisfied)
- Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton has a net satisfaction rating -18% (36% satisfied, 54% dissatisfied)
The survey was conducted between April 17th and April 22nd, 2025, with a sample of 1500 Australians. YouGov will continue to publish weekly tracking polls leading up to the next election. For insights on the Australian Federal election, please visit the YouGov website.
Note: YouGov has changed its methodology for this poll so that voters choose from the names and parties of the candidates who will appear on the House of Representatives Ballot for their electorate. As sixty-two seats do not have an independent candidate, in those seats, voters did not have the option to vote independent as in previous YouGov polls.
For further information or comment, contact Paul Smith, Director of Public Data, at paul.smith@yougov.com
Methodology: 'This survey was conducted between April 17 and April 22, 2025, with a sample size of 1,500. Results have been weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, education, AEC region, household income, and past vote (including the federal election and Voice referendum). The effective margin of error is ±3.3% See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings. YouGov allocated preferences using the respondent allocated methodology set out on MRP methodology page.
YouGov correctly predicted the result of the recent referendum at 40% Yes, 60% No, and is a founding member of the Australian Polling Council, as well as a global leader in polling research. We are the only polling company to have polled our entire panel of survey participants to ensure our polls are representative of how Australians voted in the Voice referendum.
