Dunkley seat poll shows Liberals lead 51-49 in upcoming by-election

February 26, 2024, 1:20 AM GMT+0

A by-election has been called for the division of Dunkley, to be held on 2 March 2024. YouGov has conducted a poll of 394 voters in this electorate, that indicates that Liberals have a narrow lead going into the final week of the campaign.

Liberals lead Labor 51% to 49%; after distribution of preferences.

Amir Daftari, YouGov’s Director of Polling, says “Our poll clearly shows a significant swing away from Labor, but with a week of campaigning to go, the result is close to call.”

This poll also measured voter support for the right to disconnect law just passed by Federal Parliament which found 83% of Dunkley voters supporting and only 17% opposing.

Leader of the Opposition, Peter Dutton, has pledged to overturn the right to disconnect legislation.

Amir Daftari says, “83% of Dunkley voters support the right to disconnect from work which Mr Dutton opposes. This could mean that the by-election remains wide open despite the Liberals having a narrow lead in the final week.”

Methodology: This survey was conducted between 15th and 22nd of February with a sample of 394 Voters in Dunkley collected from an online survey. Results are weighted to be representative of the Dunkley voter population by age, gender, education, and past vote (Federal vote and Voice referendum), with a margin of error of 6.1% (on a 50% figure) on effective sample size of 256. Two party preferred vote was calculated using respondent allocated preferences. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.

YouGov correctly predicted the result of the recent referendum at 40% Yes, 60% No, and is a founding member of the Australian Polling Council, as well as a global leader in polling research. We are the only polling company to have polled our entire panel of survey participants to ensure our polls are representative of how Australians vote in the Voice referendum.

For further information or comment contact Amir Daftari Director of Polling amir.daftari@yougov.com