YouGov’s newest public data poll has found that if a Tasmanian state election was held now, the current Liberal government would only receive 31% of the vote. This is down 17% from the 2021 state election where they received 48% of the vote.
The poll has found that Labor is supported by 27% of voters, the Jacqui Lambie Network by 20%, the Greens at 15% and Independents at 7%.
Only 26% of voters think the current Liberal government deserves to be re-elected, with 53% thinking it’s time to give someone else a go.
If an election was held today, the result would produce a hung parliament. YouGov’s Public Data has projected that the 35 member Tasmanian Legislative Assembly would most likely be made up of; 11 Liberal, 10 Labor, 7 Jacqui Lambie Network, 6 Greens, and 1 Independent.
Paul Smith, YouGov Director of Government, said, “The Tasmanian Liberal Party vote is currently 17% lower than it was at the 2021 state election. With only one in four voters believing the Rockliff Liberal Government deserves to be re-elected, the Liberal minority government is in deep trouble with voters whose number one concern right now is the cost of living.”
“A vote held today would break the mould of Tasmanian state politics by electing four parties to the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly. The Jacqui Lambie Network would be the third largest party after the Liberals and Labor, ahead of the Greens.”
Methodology: This survey was conducted between 21st December 2023 and 4th January 2024, with a sample of 850 voters, 170 per electorate. Results are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, past referendum vote for an effective sample of 769 with a margin of error of 3.6%. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.
YouGov correctly predicted the result of the recent referendum at 40% Yes, 60% No, and is a founding member of the Australian Polling Council, as well as a global leader in polling research.
For further information or comment contact Paul Smith Director of Government paul.smith@yougov.com
APPENDIX
Fig 1.
Fig 2.
Fig 3.
Fig 4.
Fig 5.
Fig 6.
Fig 7.
Fig 8.
