YouGov’s latest public data poll indicates that if an election were held today, the Labor Party would only receive 29% of the primary vote.
This would be the lowest percentage of Australians voting for Labor as their first choice in any Federal election since the very first in 1901.
Compared to YouGov’s last public data poll in November, Labor’s primary vote of 29% is down 2, and the Coalition is 37%, up 1. The Greens are up 2 at 15%, and One Nation remains unchanged at 7%.
However, Labor still narrowly leads on the two party preferred vote 51-49 after the distribution of all preferences (including The Greens, One Nation and others).
Comparatively, in the last Federal election, the national two party preferred was 52.13% to Labor and 47.87% to Coalition.
Comparatively the net satisfaction of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has declined to -16 down from -7. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net satisfaction has also declined, coming in at -9 compared to his previous scoring of -7.
Anthony Albanese still holds a clear lead as the preferred Prime Minister at 46% over Peter Dutton at 36% by a margin of 10 percentage points, down from 14 in the last poll run in November.
18% of Australians claim they don’t prefer either candidate as Prime Minister.
YouGov’s Director of Government and Social, Paul Smith said, “If an election were held today, fewer people would vote for a Labor candidate as their first choice than at any election since 1901.
“However, Labor still leads 51-49 after preferences and would most likely still form government, due largely to only 36% of Australians preferring Dutton over Albanese as Prime Minister.”
Comparatively, the Greens have grown in favour, with the primary indicators rising to 15%, the highest result from the party in a YouGov federal poll. Over 33% of 18-34-year-olds said they would vote for the Greens, compared to 29% in YouGov’s November poll.
YouGov’s Director of Polling, Amir Daftari said, “While traditionally younger voters lean towards the Greens mainly due to climate and environmental concerns, our latest polling suggests that younger voters now see the Greens as acting in their economic interests as well.”
YouGov’s public data poll is distinctive as it is weighted by past vote in the Federal election and the recent Voice referendum. YouGov panel members are asked about past votes in the referendum and elections to add an extra level of accuracy and insight to our research.
Poll was conducted between December 1 - 5 2023 with a nationally politically representative sample of 1,555 voters. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.
For further information or comment contact Paul Smith Director of Government paul.smith@yougov.com
*Note: The Labor vote in 1901 was 27%. In 1931 the Federal Labor and NSW Labor Parties endorsed separate Labor candidates in NSW. The total vote for Labor candidates was 38%, 27% for Federal Labor and 11% for NSW Labor.
