By Amir Daftari and Paul Smith
All of the votes have now been counted in the Voice referendum and show a result of 40% for Yes and 60% for No.
In YouGov’s last poll of the campaign we correctly projected a result of 40% Yes and 60% No. In short: we hit the nail on the head.
YouGov’s final poll was in field between 6 and 10 October 2023 and showed the electorate split 38% for Yes, 56% for No and 6% undecided. Removing the undecideds produced a result of 40.4% for Yes to 59.6% for No – which, with rounding to the nearest whole number, made our final call 40% for Yes and 60% for No: the actual result of the referendum.
Our rich data accurately showed how different seat types voted
YouGov’s accuracy is due to the rich data of our panel enabling a more representative sample. This was particularly evident in the Voice referendum when it came to how the different electorate types voted.
The differences in voting patterns in the referendum were striking. For example, the majority of Labor MP’s hold seats regarded as Outer suburban or Provincial but only six of these electorates voted Yes. Past Labor voters who voted No are now a key demographic in Australian politics.
Like most Australian elections, the Voice referendum was decided in Outer Metropolitan and Provincial electorates. The YouGov poll was extremely accurate in predicting the result in Inner Metropolitan, Outer Metropolitan and Provincial seats.
The Voice vote will further increase our accuracy
We are currently asking all of our Australian panel about how they voted in the Voice referendum and when they decided which way they would vote. Collecting data on past vote immediately after an election increases the chance of respondents’ accurately answering the question as people can misremember how they cast their ballot in elections held months and years previously.
As we are in the singular position in Australia that we own our own panel, collecting this type of information straight after the vote is something YouGov is uniquely capable of.
Having this information from our panel so soon after a real-life measurable event means we can more accurately weight and sample for future research in both the political and non-political spheres as well as adding an extra layer of analysis for both our polling and YouGov Profiles product, providing unique insights that no other data provider can offer, for example what do outer suburban Labor No voters think on a particular issue?
YouGov’s commitment to public data
YouGov is proud to release public data polling so all Australians can have free and transparent access to research on areas of public interest. We believe that helping Australians understand what the country thinks across a range of topics is an important part of the civic process.
YouGov unmatched understanding of our sample – such as past vote and education level – ensure the quality and balance of our polling. Our research is conducted using global best practice using our in-house panel – the largest of any polling company in Australia. We will continue to share our research findings with the general public through the YouGov public data portal at https://au.yougov.com/