Final YouGov Voice referendum poll: No increases lead to 18 points

October 12, 2023, 4:48 AM GMT+0

41% Yes -39% No on proposal to bring Qantas into public ownership

New research from YouGov shows No leading Yes by 56% to 38% in the Voice referendum with 6% remaining undecided – a No lead of 18 points, up 3 points from our previous poll.

YouGov Director of Polling and Academic research Amir Daftari: “Our final poll indicates a sweeping ‘No’ victory – with nearing six in ten voters intending to cast a ‘No’ vote. Our detailed analysis indicates that it is very unlikely that Yes will win anywhere apart from a number of Inner Metropolitan seats.”

“YouGov’s data also indicates that having read the Uluru Statement from the Heart has not increased people’s likelihood to vote Yes. One in four of the Australian electorate (24%) say they have read the Uluru Statement from the Heart – with more than half (59%) of these voters intending to back No on Saturday.”

Key findings on the Voice referendum include:

No holds a 55-point lead among Coalition voters but Yes leads by only 13 points among Labor voters. No leads among 2022 Coalition voters by 75% to 20% while Yes leads among 2022 Labor voters by 53%-40% and 2022 Green voters by 70%- 25%.

Inner City seats are voting Yes but everywhere else is voting No. Breaking down the vote by AEC seat type[1], Yes narrowly Leads in Inner Metropolitan electorates by 48%-45% but No has clear leads in Outer Metropolitan electorates (56%-34%), Provincial City electorates (62%-35%) and Rural electorates (65%-33%).

Yes leads among the young while older voters overwhelmingly favour No. Yes leads among the under-25s (58%-32%) and 25-34 year olds (48%-44%). However, No leads among 35-49 year-olds (55%-37%), those aged 50-64 (63%-32%) and voters aged 65+ (67%-29%).

Federal voting intention

YouGov’s research also indicates that if an election were held today, the Labor Party would win the two-party preferred vote 53%-47% over the Coalition, compared to the 2022 result of 52.2% to 47.8%. Primary voting intentions are also broadly similar to the 2022 Federal election with the research recording 33% Labor, 36% Coalition and 14% Green, with 17% for others.

[1] The AEC defines middle ring Urban electorates like seat of Cook as Inner Metropolitan

Net satisfaction with Anthony Albanese stands at -3, while Peter Dutton’s net satisfaction is -12. Anthony Albanese (50%) leads Peter Dutton (34%) as preferred Prime Minister by a margin of 16 percentage points.

YouGov Director of Government research Paul Smith: “While in Saturday’s Voice referendum No has a commanding 18 point lead, Prime Minister Albanese enjoys a similar 16 point lead over Peter Dutton when it comes to who voters would prefer as PM. With Labor continuing to enjoy an election winning 53%-47% lead in the two party preferred vote, it is clear that ahead of the Saturday’s contest voters see the Voice referendum and who they will vote for as completely different questions.”

Qantas ownership

Voters also indicated that by 41%-39% they would support a constitutional change to make Qantas a publicly owned company. One in five (20%) are undecided.

Trade Unions and Members of Parliament have called for Qantas to return to public ownership after the ACCC launched legal action against the carrier for allegedly selling ticket for cancelled flight and the High Court ruled the airline has illegally fired 1,700 staff.

YouGov’s data shows support for the proposition is strongest among those intending to vote Yes in the forthcoming Voice referendum (58%), as well as among 2022 Green voters (53%), 2022 Labor voters (46%) and Australians under the age of 35 (48%). By contrast, 51% of 2022 Coalition voters and 53% of those who intend to vote No in the Voice referendum are opposed.

Poll was conducted between October 6th to October 10th 2023 with a nationally politically representative sample of 1,519 voters. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.

For further information or comment contact Paul Smith Director of Government