No 53%-Yes 38% in Voice referendum poll

October 04, 2023, 11:37 AM GMT+0

Best Prime Minister: Albanese leads Dutton by 17-points

New research from YouGov shows No leading Yes by 53% to 38% in the Voice referendum. Currently, 9% remain undecided as early voting begins ahead of polling day on 14 October.

YouGov Director of Government Paul Smith: “With pre-poll voting on the Voice referendum starting today, No enjoys a commanding 15-point lead. While only a small majority of 2022 Labor voters intend to vote Yes, the referendum is having no discernible effect on voting intention, with Labor enjoying a slightly greater two-party preferred vote than the last election and Anthony Albanese enjoying a 17-point lead over Peter Dutton as preferred Prime Minister.”

YouGov Director of Polling and Academic research Amir Daftari: “The data clearly shows the contest is much closer in inner metro areas - but the Yes campaign is still struggling to move the needle across the country.”

Key findings on the Voice referendum include:

No holds a 51-point lead among Coalition voters but Yes leads by only 8-points among Labor voters. No leads among 2022 Coalition voters by 73% to 22% while Yes leads among 2022 Labor voters by 49%-41% and 2022 Green voters by 70%- 24%.

Inner City seats are voting Yes but everywhere else is voting No. Breaking down the vote by AEC seat type, Yes leads in Inner Metropolitan electorates by 48%-41% but No leads in Outer Metropolitan electorates by 58%-31%, Provincial City electorates by 56%-40% and Rural electorates by 60%-34%.

Yes leads among the young while the old are voting overwhelmingly No. Yes leads among 18-24 year olds by 58%-34%, among 25-34 year olds by 51%-40% and 35-49 year olds by 46%-41%. However, No overwhelmingly leads among 50-64 year-olds by 68%-25% and among those aged 65 and over by 68%-24%.

The data also indicates that if an election were held today, the Labor Party would win the two-party preferred vote 53%-47% over the Coalition, compared to the 2022 result of 52.2% to 47.8%. Primary voting intentions are also broadly similar to the 2022 Federal election with the research recording 33% Labor, 35% Coalition and 13% Green, with 19% for others.

Net satisfaction with Anthony Albanese stands at -3, while Peter Dutton’s net satisfaction is -17. Anthony Albanese (50%) leads Peter Dutton (33%) as preferred Prime Minister by a margin of 17 percentage points.

Paul Smith: “We have launched our public data polling so all Australians have free and transparent access to research on areas of public interest. It is conducted using global best practice using our in-house panel – the largest of any polling company in Australia.

“We have unmatched understanding of our sample, such as past vote and education level and these insights ensure the quality and balance of our polling. We are proud to share it with the general public through the YouGov public data portal”

Poll was conducted between 25th Sept to 29th Sept 2023 with a nationally politically representative sample of 1,563 voters. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.

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For media enquiries:

Paul Smith, Director Government and Social, Australia