Latest YouGov poll: Labor narrowly leads the Coalition by 51% to 49%

November 17, 2023, 4:36 AM GMT+0

54% of voters think Australia heading in wrong direction

YouGov’s latest public data poll would indicates that if an election were held today, the Labor Party would narrowly win the two-party preferred vote 51%-49% over the Coalition. The result would be below to the 2022 election result of 52.2% to 47.8% and is also down 1.5% on Labor’s showing in YouGov’s previous poll where it led 53%-47%.

Labor’s primary vote of 31% is also below where it was in YouGov’s last public data poll when it stood at 33%. The primary vote for the Coalition is unchanged at 36%, Greens at 13% (-1), PHON 7% (+1) and 13% (+2) voting for other parties or independent candidates.

Net satisfaction with Anthony Albanese has declined from -3 to -7, while Peter Dutton’s net satisfaction is has risen from -12 last time to -7 now. However, Anthony Albanese still maintains a clear 14-point lead over Peter Dutton as preferred Prime Minister (48% to 34%).

YouGov Director of Polling, Amir Daftari: “The downward trend in Albanese’s satisfaction ratings and Labor’s primary, coupled with a fresh referendum defeat points to a tough road ahead for Labor to regain lost ground”

The data reveals that over half (54%) of Australians think the country is heading in the wrong direction while 46% percent think it is headed in the right direction. How Australians voted in the Voice referendum reveals a stark divide in outlook, with 70% of No voters thinking Australia heading in wrong direction while 70% of Yes voters believe the country is heading in the right direction.

YouGov Director of Government, Paul Smith: “While our public data poll shows Labor would narrowly win an election with the lowest primary vote of any winning party ever if it were held today, it also finds that the majority think the Australia is heading in the wrong direction. It is particularly revealing that 70% of No voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction compared to 70% of Yes voters who think that it is heading in the right direction. This is a profound division in outlook that only YouGov can pick up as we asked our respondents how they voted immediately after the referendum.”

YouGov’s public data poll is distinctive as it is weighted by past vote in the Federal election and the recent Voice referendum. YouGov panel members are asked about past votes in referendum and elections to add an extra level of accuracy and insight to our research.

Poll was conducted between November 10 and 14 2023 with a nationally politically representative sample of 1,582 voters. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.

For further information or comment contact Paul Smith Director of Government